Prospective Evaluation of A Machine Learning-Based Decision Support System for Intravenous-To-Oral Antibiotic Switching

Speaker: Dr William Bolton, United Kingdom

Introduction:

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications in infectious diseases have always had a focus on diagnosis and resistance prediction. Stewardship specially IV-to-oral switch (IVOS) still remains underdeveloped. Whenever applicable and appropriate oral antibiotics offer benefits such as reduced side effects, lower costs, decreased nursing workload, shorter hospital stays, and a smaller environmental footprint. 

Aim:

The main objective of the study is to introduce an AI-based Decision Support System (DSS) that aims at optimizing the key stewardship intervention. 

Daily prediction model:

  • The AI model predicted the eligibility of IVOS on a daily basis by using routinely collected clinical data. It was seen to mimic decision-making on antimicrobial ward rounds. 

  • The model was trained using public datasets like Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) and Electronic Intensive Care Unit (eICU) followed by testing at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust. 

  • In terms of performance, it showed good accuracy, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) ranging from 0.78 to 0.80 with low false positive rates across data sets.

  • The model was tested on 500 patients and the AI tool demonstrated consistent performance when applied prospectively which showed potential for real-world deployment. 

  • The tool was deployed as a web based Steward AI Platform which is accessible through a web based mobile app. The app enabled the clinicians to input key patient parameters (e.g., diagnosis, temperature, C-reactive protein) into a simple form. Advanced inputs were optional.

  • The app also offers real time predictions with explainability. It recommends if it's safe to switch from IV to oral antibiotics, and explains the reasoning behind its decision. 

  • The outputs can be annotated and shared via text/image format and also integrate them into medical records. 

Prospective Clinical Evaluation:

  • The evaluation was conducted with Imperial College NHS Trust using pharmacist-reviewed gold-standard decisions from point prevalence surveys.

  • It was seen that there was an initial drop in the Area under the Curve (AUC) due to a mismatch between observed prescribing practices and optimal decisions

  • After alterations the updated model of the application aligned better with expert decisions and achieved lower false positive rates. 

Conclusion:

The team is said to be halfway through the innovation-to-implementation journey working toward multi-centre trials, real real-time clinical integration, and regulatory approval. Collaborations with institutions that are interested in evaluating or co-developing the technology are also invited.

ESCMID Global, April 11-15, 2025, Vienna  







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